Baggy Jeans and Baby Tees: Back to School Special
Discover more from After School by Casey Lewis
Baggy Jeans and Baby Tees: Back to School Special
after school weekend edition
Welcome to this special “Back to School with After School” edition. I’m taking down the paywall this weekend courtesy of my good friends over at Day One Agency, who also sent over some flashcards around some of the rising trends the agency is seeing impacting Gen Z both in and out of the classroom this year.
Like last year, I’m doing a deep dive into Gen Z (and Gen Z-adjacent) retailers’ bts strategies — what they’re selling, how they’re selling it — as well as some analysis of this year’s back-to-school shopping hauls on TikTok to get a better idea of what young consumers are actually buying. My screen time has been absolutely out of control this week. I do it all for you! (At least that’s what I tell myself.)
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Today we’re talking about:
Trends in and out of the classroom
What Gen Z is buying for back-to-school
Plus: The top 10 most popular purchases for back-to-school, including the most important jeans and the status backpack
What brands are doing for back-to-school
This letter is sponsored by Day One Agency — thanks y’all.
TRENDS IN AND OUT OF THE CLASSROOM
How much is TikTok pressuring incoming freshmen to spend a small fortune on their dorm room decorations? Everyone is using ChatGPT — will schools clamp down on it or proceed with caution? And how many Gen Zers are ditching college altogether? Check out some of the trends and shifts shaping the school year ahead, courtesy of Day One Agency.
✍️ GRADE AI
Education has been a major national flashpoint this year: The Supreme Court effectively ended affirmative action, while conservative states are pushing through questionable syllabi filled with historical inaccuracies. (Standards are falling…rapidly.) AI’s role in the classroom is next on the docket, and we’re expecting to see a continuation of the debate around whether or not educational institutions should embrace or eschew tools like ChatGPT. Plagiarism rests at the center of the discourse (for now), but we can also see how these tools might be a part of the ongoing culture wars that have shifted into the classroom. Even as some studies show that ChatGPT “leans liberal,” some districts are using it to allegedly help recommend library books to remove.
💻 ALT-EDUCATION
More high school graduates are foregoing college altogether, questioning the merit of higher ed in a challenging economy and its ability to secure high-paying, fulfilling careers. Brands are tapping in to provide additional value and alternatives, like Roblox’s ongoing partnership with Parsons. Google is offering competitive apprenticeship programs, while IBM and Delta are dropping college requirements to focus more on skill set and experience, creating a direct line to the professional world. Edtech company Antimatter is also experimenting with new educational formats: meme flash cards anyone?
📓 OFFICE HOURS
As the cutthroat college admissions cycle grows more competitive, undergrads are feeling the pressure to make their four years picture perfect. Some anxious freshman women are forcing their parents to cough up $4,000 on sorority consultants to learn about appropriate etiquette ahead of rush season, in addition to dropping $20,000 on the proper attire (yikes). Meanwhile, “silent competition” on TikTok for the most aesthetic dorm decor is boosting retailers’ sales this back-to-school season, pushing newly admitted undergrads to hire interior designers to turn their tiny rooms into stylish spaces. Some students are even joining a college organization called Reach (also friends of D1A!), which coaches aspiring creators on how to build their personal brands.
🏈 PAY-TO-PLAY
The Supreme Court’s 2021 NIL decision — paving the way for student-athletes to (now, legally) get compensated for endorsements—has dramatically changed what it means to be a college athlete. Since then, we’ve seen brands get creative (and very weird) with partnership deals: Punter Matthew Coughlin endorsed Locked On Spartans podcast by tweeting, “I’ve never listened to it, but I’m sure it’s not terrible,” while Alabama's Kool-Aid’ McKinstry signed with…Kool-Aid. We expect the endorsement deals to keep rolling in, especially as (talented!) nepo athletes like Bronny James kick off their college careers. With some athletes earning upwards of $25,000 for a TikTok post, young athletes are pressured to prioritize building an online persona to earn deals. This growing pressure, plus the jaw-dropping sums of money involved, will also inevitably spark more conversations around wealth gaps among college athletes.
WHAT GEN Z IS BUYING FOR BACK-TO-SCHOOL
Watching hours of back-to-school shopping hauls has filled me with deep nostalgia for back-to-school shopping season. Every August, my mom took me to St. Louis, a two-hour drive from home, to go shopping at the “good” malls. (We had a closer mall, but it didn’t have a Gap, let alone an Abercrombie.)
We’d spend the day flitting in and out of stores — Gap, Abercrombie, American Eagle, Aeropostale, Dillards — breaking briefly for a BBQ chicken chopped salad from CPK. I vividly recall the fall of my freshman year coming home with a stack of baby tees (one said “Abercrombie Princess”), Doc Marten mary janes, and lowrise cargo pants filled with the feeling that I was going to have the best year of my life. (Fortunately, life did not actually peak then, though my wardrobe may have.)
🛍️ IRL VS ONLINE
Research shows that Gen Z is just as interested in shopping in person as they are in online shopping, but it’s clear that Gen Z does the vast majority of back-to-school shopping IRL, as evidenced by the armfuls of shopping bags that appear at the beginning of the hauls. Shopping bags are part of the theater; every once in a while, you’ll see someone unbox something they’ve ordered online, and they introduce it almost apologetically (“I had to order this online because it was sold out in my size…”). One girl explains that her grandma has thrown away her shopping bags, removed the tags on her new clothes, and washed everything before she’d had a chance to do a haul (“but it’s all brand-new, I promise!”). She’s visibly annoyed.
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💸 WHAT INFLATION?
This year, back-to-school spending is expected to reach a record high of $41.5 billion, up from $36.9 billion last year and surpassing the previous high of $37.1 billion in 2021, according to the National Retail Federation. Inflation will have a "very big" impact on back-to-school shopping for 31% of parents and an "extremely big" impact for 29%, with deals and promotions driving shopping decisions at retailers because of inflation. A good number of back-to-school hauls mention sales and coupons, though no one explicitly talks about being on a budget or financial constraints. Many TikTokers begin their back-to-school hauls with an opening line along the lines of “I just want to say how lucky I am to have this stuff.” (That doesn’t stop the “Oh, she’s rich rich” comments.)
📱 FASHIONTOK VS REALITY
Many of the biggest fall trends we’ve seen documented across FashionTok and in Vogue — denim maxis, mesh flats, distressed leather, men’s boxers styled as shorts — are nowhere to be found in back-to-school hauls. That’s not to say these trends aren’t real, but what a 15-year-old in Michigan wears to high school is very different than what a 22-year-old in the Lower East Side wears to her coworking space. A lot of the trends we (or I, at least) think of as being “Gen Z trends” aren’t; Gen Z is between the ages of 11 and 26. There’s really no such thing as a “Gen Z trend.” (That’s why generational markers aren’t terribly helpful; “youth trends” exist, but “Gen Z trends” don’t.)
THE TOP 10 MOST POPULAR PURCHASES FOR BACK-TO-SCHOOL
A moment on my methodology: I spent many, many hours watching hundreds of back-to-school hauls, tallying up the most frequently mentioned purchases. I do think haultok is a pretty good representation of what young consumers are buying, but it’s obviously not perfect.
1) North Face Women’s Borealis Backpack, $99: This was the most popular backpack by a mile! I saw at least 50 of these backpacks. It is without a doubt the status backpack of 2023. Why this backpack? Great q! I don’t have an answer. I also don’t have an answer as to why Vera Bradley’s quilted canvas backpack is the second most popular. Vera Bradley? In 2023??? Fwiw, black is the only acceptable option.
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2) Rare Beauty Soft Pinch Liquid Blush, $23: Most back-to-school shopping trips include a stop in Sephora, and this liquid blush made by Selena Gomez’s beauty brand was the most-mentioned cosmetic item in hauls. Last week when Bloomberg reported that Rare Beauty sold 3.1 million units of this blush in 2022, generating nearly $70 million in revenue, I thought, huh…how??? We’re talking about a $23 item here. Now I get it. It’s because of the teens! Rare Beauty is on pace in 2023 to triple last year’s sales.
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3) Hollister Seamless Fabric Square-Neck Baby Tee, $18. Skims’ signature square-neck tee has inspired a gazillion dupes. This Hollister one was the most frequently mentioned, but also popular is the $25 Garage Portia Square Neckline Tee (more on Garage below).
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4) Birkenstock Taupe Suede Boston Clogs, $158: Last fall, the Boston clog went wildly viral — and then swiftly sold out. Now it’s back in stock and on the top of teens’ bts lists. A number of hauls mentioned Target’s $30 dupe, but most young consumers go for the real thing.
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5) Offline by Aerie High Waisted Crossover Leggings, $45: Since the pandemic, leggings and sweatpants have had a stronghold on teens and that’s very much still the case this season. Pretty much every bts haul included a few pairs of leggings; Lululemon’s $98 Aligns remain popular, but Aerie’s crossover-waist pair was the most mentioned. Black is obviously the most common choice, but this blue option came up a lot too. As far as fit goes, traditional (with cinched ankles) and flared (millennials know them as yoga pants) are acceptable.
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6) Garage Remi Straight Cargo, $70: I’ve been vaguely aware of Garage’s existence but I did not realize just how popular it was among young people until spending 10 hours watching bts hauls. It was one of the most frequently mentioned retailers, up there with Lululemon and Sephora. As far as I can tell, Garage is akin to a slightly younger, lower-priced Aritzia. There are hundreds of locations across the country, mostly found in malls, from California to Texas to Soho. And young people love it — on TikTok, #garageclothing has 103M views and #iweargarage has 338M views. These cargos were especially sought-after, but their jeans and tees came up a lot, too.
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7) Levi’s Low Pros, $80: Jeans were not mentioned a ton in bts hauls — most hauls included on average one pair of denim, but it seemed like more of a perfunctory buy rather than something teens were really excited to purchase. The exception was Low Pros, which have gone so viral on TikTok that they’ve sold out of a number of the washes. On TikTok, #levilowpro has 8.7M views. People are obsessed, myself included. I was shamelessly influenced and have no regrets; they’re baggy and comfy and so cute.
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8) Lululemon Scuba Oversized Half-Zip Hoodie, $118: To say that Gen Z loves Lulu is an understatement This half-zip was the most mentioned item, but the Full-Zip Scuba and Swiftly Tech Cropped Tee were favorites, too.
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8) John Galt Erica Newport Crew Neck Sweatshirt, $40. Yes, John Galt is the name of a character in Ayn Rand's novel Atlas Shrugged, but it’s also a sub-brand from Brandy Melville that’s now carried at Pacsun. This year, all the girls bought this Newport sweatshirt from “the Brandy section” at Pacsun.
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9) Urban Outfitters Out From Under Go For Gold Seamless Top, $35: As evidenced by the 2,404 reviews and 11M views on TikTok, young people really, really love this tee. I don’t know how they’re getting away with wearing a top so cropped to school, but: respect!
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10) Frilly socks: The ruffles matter, the brand doesn’t.
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WHAT BRANDS ARE DOING FOR BACK-TO-SCHOOL
ABERCROMBIE
What they’re selling: Denim! Denim, denim, and more denim.
What they’re doing: Last year, I mentioned that Abercrombie had re-established itself as a sort of Reformation Lite, selling floral sundresses, lace-trimmed slips, and girlboss-y trousers. This year, they’re focused more on denim (like pretty much everyone else, as you’ll see), and they’re still leaning into more of a post-grad consumer rather than students — for example, they have an “office-approved” collection, while Abercrombie Kids has school-centric merchandising.
But even if they’re trying to skew older, it’s still a favorite of teens. Whatever they’re doing is working — Abercrombie & Fitch reported its highest second-quarter sales since 2011. This is their 10th consecutive quarter of sales growth, which is pretty impressive when you think about it, and both men’s and women’s have seen double-digit sales growth. “In women’s, we continue to see strength in pants and dresses as our customers look for outfits to get them through their workday to the weekend getaway,” CEO Fran Horowitz told investors during the quarterly earnings call. “On the men’s side, we’ve strengthened knit tops and pants, all versatile, seasonless products to outfit them for their everyday lives.”
Horowitz told investors that while both Abercrombie and Hollister used to be focused on jeans and tees, they’ve since evolved into lifestyle brands. Kind of funny, given the denim focus of their fall offerings. Horowitz noted that denim remains a key category, but “bottoms is much, much bigger than denim is today and we had for the second quarter a very strong bottoms business across brands and across genders,” she added. (I guess the phrase “bottoms is much, much bigger” is technically grammatically correct, but man, do I hate it.)
HOLLISTER
What they’re selling: Parachute pants, prairie skirts, oversized sweatshirts that say things like “Amsterdam” and “Bronco.”
What they’re doing: Gen Z is really into “basics” right now, and the square-neck tee you see on the models above is all over TikTok — paired mostly with lowrise cargos or low-slung sweatpants; god, high schoolers love sweatpants. Hollister is wisely leaning into well-priced wardrobe staples with their “current rotation” capsule.
On the earnings call, Horowitz said sales were driven by customer response to a more “balanced assortment” that included dresses, “non-denim bottoms” (see: cargos and sweatpants), and “seasonal tops.”
URBAN OUTFITTERS
What they’re selling: UO is peddling everything you saw in a Delia*s catalog circa 2001, from futuristic metallic halter tops to baggy cargos to grunge-y maxi skirts.
What they’re doing: It’s not UO’s style to do a bts campaign, but they usually do a dorm room edit. This year, they’ve skipped any student-specific merchandising, probably because they’re aiming for a slightly older consumer who’s less likely to be impacted by inflation. In an earnings call with investors, CEO Richard Haynes said while “the customer is definitely favoring fashion over price” at stores like Anthropologie and Free People, that’s not so much the case at UO. “If the item is right, she will spend a reasonable amount of money for the item,” he said. “But we do see many of our opening price points overindexing. And so I think that at the Urban brand, the price is probably equally important to the fashion.”
Fwiw, Urban Outfitters Inc. hit record quarterly sales of $1.27 billion — a 7.5% increase, up from last quarter’s record of $1.11 billion. But that was mostly because of Anthropologie (up 10.6%) and Free People (up 22%); at UO, sales were down 12.6%. Especially telling is that the brand’s rental service Nuuly saw increased sales by $27 million, driven by an 85% increase in subscribers compared to the same quarter last year.
ANTHROPOLOGIE
What they’re selling: Anthropologie? For back to school? Hear me out. Like Madewell, Anthro has turned its focus to a slightly younger shopper and while they don’t have a back-to-school edit, but they do have trending edits like a “preppy varsity” shop that skew more youthful.
What they’re doing: For the first time in years (ever?), Anthropologie launched a celebrity campaign for fall, and they tapped Phoebe Tonkin — 8.5M followers on Instagram, 1.1M on TikTok — for it. The "Falling for Anthro" campaign spans TV ads, influencer collaborations, and digital billboards as the brand strives to expand its consumer base. Year to date, Anthro has seen growth in customers under the age of 40, driven by double-digit new customer growth in its women’s apparel, shoes, and accessory categories. (The brand recently had a TikTok-viral hit with its $128 Melie Bianco Brigitte Large Satchel, a very good Bottega dupe, that I suspect contributed to their growth.) Elizabeth Preis, CMO of Anthropologie told Glossy, "When the brand was first founded 30 years ago, it was [intended] for someone in their mid-30s... But we didn’t keep bringing in those younger customers at the same rate as when we started." Fwiw, they’ve started seeding gifts to Gen Z influencers all over my FYP.
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GAP
What they’re selling: Gap is in the midst of a well-documented identity crisis and boy, does it show in their fall offerings. There’s very on-trend baggy cargos and cropped tees alongside skinny jeans and frumpy cottagecore dresses.
What they’re doing: Gap has a very Gen Z line called “Project Gap” — “our new capsule for the right-now generation,” according to the product descriptions. It’s quite good but they’ve puzzlingly done no marketing or education around it. I suspect it’s meant to replace their Gap Teen concept which they launched in 2020 and did a push Roblox campaign around last year, but have since seemed to quietly phase out. In hindsight, it feels like a last-ditch effort to appeal to their target audience.
The Club Roblox Boutique, which is designed with the brand’s Times Square flagship store in mind, is a teen-focused activation that includes a fashion-themed mini-game and other digital experiences. The activation is also tied to the retailer’s traditional marketing, taking inspiration from its summer ad campaign and featuring digital replicas of items in the current Gap Teen collection.
This year, Gap isn’t doing much of anything around back-to-school, likely because they’re just trying to stay above water. As WSJ wrote this week, “Gap has been losing popularity for so long that few millennials — never mind Gen Zers — will remember that the brand was once cool.” The WSJ retail analyst says Gap may have a shot at a comeback with its new leader, but “investors have plenty of reasons to be skeptical.” Shares of Gap Inc. — which also owns Old Navy, Athleta, and Banana Republic — declined 5.4% over the last 21 years, during which time the S&P 500 more than quintupled.
In the hundreds of back-to-school haul videos I watched, Gap was not mentioned once (though several of the hauls I watched were filmed by girls wearing Gap logo tees, interestingly!).
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AMERICAN EAGLE
What they’re selling: Baggy lowrise jeans, corset-inspired tanks, oversized graphic tees that say things like “Grateful Dead” and “Blink-182.”
What they’re doing: American Eagle partnered with former Dance Moms stars Maddie and Kenzie Ziegler for their bts campaign which included a 90s-inspired capsule collection. “AE jeans are the number-one brand for women of all ages and men in our core demographic and we are excited to unleash our denim domination for back-to-school,” said Jennifer Foyle, the brand’s president and executive creative director. “The socially connected Ziegler sisters and their personal approach to styling represent a genuine connection to our customer community, providing the inspiration to incorporate AE jeans into any outfit, for any occasion.”
The Ziegler sisters have a combined 28.5 million Instagram and 29.3 million TikTok followers and will promote the collection on their social channels. AE will also be making their “biggest outdoor push in quite some time,” appearing on a 3D billboard in Times Square and advertising liveboards throughout New York City. “Anywhere that Gen Z is consuming media, you will likely see this campaign,” said AE’s CMO Craig Brommers.
MADEWELL
What they’re selling: Oversized pleated trousers, denim maxi skirts, Dorsey dupes, a lot of silver (shiny tiny bags, patent loafers, etc.)
What they’re doing: We’ve talked (and talked) about Madewell’s pivot towards younger consumers after being laser-focused on millennials for more than a decade. When the Madewell concept debuted in 2006, millennials were young consumers — I’ll never forget going to the first Madewell store at NorthPark while visiting my cousins in Dallas; I would have been 18 or 19 and I bought a very prepcore V-neck sweater that I still have — but somewhere along the way, they lost their touch with youth and now they’re trying to get it back. Madewell’s fall collection feels like it’s a step in the right direction; I didn’t hear it mentioned in any back-to-school hauls this year, but I think by next year, they’ll have more of a presence.
Timed to fall, they launched two big collabs that generated quite a bit of buzz: A denim line with cool-girl stylist Molly Dickson got tons of social media love (and pretty good reviews), while a limited-run capsule with Ford Motor Co. “inspired by the Ford Bronco racers from the 1970s” for Madewell Men’s sold out instantly.
PACSUN
What they’re selling: Lowrise baggy jeans, slinky corset tops, cropped hoodies
What they’re doing: Like everyone else, Pacsun is focused on denim for fall. Their fall campaign, called “Designed for You,” spotlights denim in many iterations — mini skirts, cargos, colorful jeans — modeled by influencers Elah Garcia, Donovan Wildfong, Mouhamed Mbengue, and Grace Corton, all of whom represent Pacsun as brand ambassadors.
Pacsun is launching virtual try-on experiences for cargo and denim categories on Snapchat, and on TikTok, the retailer is expanding its Live Selling program, “delivering fashion content with new influencers and content creators who share their favorite denim and casual pant styles and get-ready-with-me videos.”
ICYMI, NYT published a story this week with the hilarious headline: “The Met Keeps Releasing Clothing With Pacsun. Why?” The why is pretty obvious, though: Young people love it. The Pacsun we grew up with “sun-dappled leisure,” as the Times writes, has pivoted towards streetwear and cool-girl brands like Brandy Melville.
Josh Romm, the head of global licensing and partnerships at the Met, which has partnered with other clothing brands including Champion, said that a collaboration with Pacsun was appealing because it stood to give the 153-year-old institution a bit of an edge, particularly among the younger demographic that gravitates toward Pacsun. “Now we’re interesting,” Mr. Romm said.
A few more back-to-school launches…
Just in time for school air, Glossier launched Stretch Foundation. I’m not sure if the timing was deliberate, but since so many young consumers overhaul their beauty routines this time of year, Glossier’s highly anticipated foundation — which debuted last week — was brilliantly timed. I’m not a foundation girl so I wasn’t planning to try this, but I got a sample in a Sephora order that came in this week and I unexpectedly love it. It feels more like a tinted moisturizer than a Capital-F foundation. As soon as I run out of my Ilia Skin Tint, I’m switching to Glossier Stretch Foundation.
Kendra Scott kicks off “Hey, Elisa” campus tour. “Elisa,” for those who didn’t spend the last two weeks on #RushTok, is jewelry designer Kendra Scott’s ultra-popular pendant necklace. The campaign will feature a multicampus mobile pop-up tour offering immersive experiences, including a style quiz and interactive photo moments. To hype the tour, the brand released its first augmented reality video on Instagram and TikTok.
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Dormify is partnering with the Container Store — and tapping into TikTok trends — to woo young consumers. Between the closure of Bed Bath & Beyond and strong back-to-college spending predictions, dorm décor brand Dormify is well-positioned to have a very good bts season. (Fwiw, the National Retail Federation forecasts a $94 billion spend by college students, up $20 billion from the previous year, with an average of $1,366.95 per person.) Imo, Dormify is a brand you should be watching if you care about very good retail marketing strategies. They have a network of 2,000 ambassadors who create content around the brand, sharing personalized discount codes with their followers; in exchange, they get “points” to shop their wishlists. Dormify uses Geneva — the same platform Gen Z skincare brand Bubble uses — to communicate with their community. “It’s really one of our best sources of feedback,” cofounder Amanda Zuckerman told Modern Retail. I thought this was interesting:
One of the biggest new products Dormify is testing out this year is bar carts, Zuckerman said. Dormify has not offered bar carts in years past, but the company noticed that “it’s one of the big trends for upperclassmen apartments,” Zuckerman explained. “It’s become a very TikTok and social media-fueled thing,” she continued. “They have their cute bar cart, they have a nice neon light above it, they have prints.”
“But Gen Z doesn’t drink!” Perhaps this trend is purely aesthetic, or maybe the notion that “Gen Z doesn’t drink” is more tied to the fact that only a small percentage of Gen Z are of drinking age…
If you made it this far, ily. And if you enjoyed this, please consider becoming a paid subscriber. 🫶
I’ll leave you with one last bts TikTok.
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Baggy Jeans and Baby Tees: Back to School Special
Thanks Day One Agency!
You mentioned Hoka and On appearing in a ton of bts hauls, which models of Hoka are most popular?